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Thinking Differently About the Future in a VUCA-D2-BANI World

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In his classic book by the same title, Marshall Goldsmith reminds us “What got you here won’t get you there!”

Past success does not guarantee we continue on an upward trajectory, but if you’ve been in business for any length of time, you know that multiple factors contribute to one’s longevity in a profession or career.  For company executives, especially those in the C-suite of any size enterprise, the challenge comes in thinking differently about the present and the future.


How is your team thinking differently about:

  • Paradigm shifts required to face constant change?
  • The value propositions you deliver to defined customer segments?
  • The over the horizon” vision required to achieve a competitively dominant position within the next five to seven years?
  • The supportive matrix required across your enterprise to fulfill all the above?

Too often, executives rely on their expertise in functional areas through which they have advanced throughout their careers, only to find they lack the critical skills to integrate knowledge, experience, and perspectives with others to achieve the best possible solutions for an entire enterprise.  More often than not, the best solutions require collaboration, coordination of effort, suboptimizing some functions temporarily to advance the organization as a whole, and exercising humble, Level 5 servant leadership that helps others self-actualize in ways often unimagined.

Working with executive teams in various industries, I have found required competence lacking in key areas such as global awareness, a well-rounded business perspective, and the ability to lead change across diverse disciplines. To achieve sustainable success,  executive teams must think and act differently if their enterprise is going to survive and thrive.

The VUCA-D2-BANI World is Becoming Less Manageable

The world today has moved beyond the VUCA world of the turn of the Century (VUCA = Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) for many reasons, not the least of which has been continuous technological change that “pushes the envelope.” As the result of COVID, we have seen organizations turned upside down for reasons addressed in other articles too numerous to mention here. While every organization needs to accept head-on the challenge of upskilling and redeploying the organization’s Human Capital, the future requires highly adaptive, flexible responses that demand strategic “out of box,” creative, and innovative thinking.

Doing so is especially difficult for large organizations where “bureaucratic” and dogmatic cultures exist; universities and government at all levels are good examples. However. size alone does not define “status quo” organizational designs. Many small to mid-size companies still “play it safe” with traditional structures and designs that may have been “comfortable and safe” in the past, yet can be disastrous for the growth necessary to survive and thrive.

VUCA has evolved since 2000 to include D2 – Diverse and Disruptive, but the evolution and events of the past 15 years in particular have ushered in new characteristics with which business leaders must contend and address, specifically BANI: Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible.

In short, the VUCA-D2-BANI world beckons organizational leaders to embrace continual change, not merely because external challenges dictate such but because “evolution of thought” is the basis for innovation and growth. Executive leaders must not only anticipate what is completely “over the horizon” and out of sight, but they must reorient thinking and break away from “traditional” patterns. Doing so requires having a solid set of proven mental models upon which to design and build organizations that ensure effective decisions across the board that ensure staying ahead of competitors as well as others, such as regulators, who affect one’s success.

Enter John Boyd, The World’s Greatest Fighter Pilot

What do fighter pilots and executives have in common? How about making split-second decisions, anticipating where the enemy (or competition) is heading next, and shooting at targets with confidence that your “ammunition,” whatever that may be, will eliminate the threat?

If you are not already familiar with Colonel John Boyd, you should be. Boyd was an engineer and scholar, two roles that followed his experience and expertise as a USAF fighter pilot warrior who essentially “wrote the book” on modern-day air combat (Coram, 2002). His understanding of how warfare changed with the transition from reciprocating to jet aircraft in the 1950s transformed the way in which pilots approach aerial combat, for which he became known as the world’s greatest fighter pilot.

Boyd was irascible yet so confident in his knowledge and understanding of how adversaries flew in combat that he became the target of many young, equally confident pilots when they entered the newly formed Air Force’s Fighter Weapons School (FWS) at Nellis AFB, NV, in the late 1950s (Corum, 2002).  Many thought they could outsmart Boyd, but they consistently had rude awakenings once they encountered “Forty-second Boyd” in the air. Boyd had the uncanny ability to down his opponents in the air in 40 seconds or less because he saw things differently than simply instruments that provided data. How did Boyd turn once arrogant students into avid acolytes who viewed Boyd as their high priest (Coram, 2002)?  By thinking differently about the external environment.

Boyd’s influence extended well beyond FWS to include the other Services and foreign allies. He overcame initial resistance to his ideas by challenging preconceived notions about air combat. In a 1976 paper titled “Destruction and Creation,” Boyd posited that a leader must constantly destroy and create new views of the world as the external environment changes. He never published a formal book, but the fighter tactics book he wrote for the FWS changed fighter tactics for all US Military Services as well as the majority of our allies.

Boyd’s classic thesis is just as pertinent today as the day it was written. In the study of chaos theory, leaping from the known to the unknown can be frightening, but true change and learning occur in the abyss that exists between the departure from the past and reaching a new goal and future. Boyd understood this and created a model that is especially pertinent in today’s VUCA-D2-BANI world!

Boyd’s OODA Loop: A Solid Strategic Thinking Framework

Boyd embraced a rapidly changing external environment as fighter tactics that were successful for propellor driven aircraft proved totally inadequate against rapidly evolving jets. He saw the challenges of jet warfare required entirely different understanding of the visible threats. How is this any different than what we face today in the business world?

Boyd had a tremendous revelation about thermodynamics and energy while pursuing advanced studies at Georgia Tech, especially about the “amount of energy that goes into a substance and the resulting change in the properties of that substance” (Coram, 2002, p. 127).

He created his brilliant Energy-Maneuverability (E-M) theories in a variety of aircraft at Eglin AFB, FL, which gained the attention of senior USAF leaders who fully understood the implications of his work.  His theory evolved into practices that successfully reduced the threat of Soviet MiGs and increased US pilot confidence.

In short, Boyd understood the need to “fly ahead” and anticipate the probable enemy moves, given the speed, closing distance, and capabilities of each aircraft. He began with the simple premise that the success of any action depends on its precedents, specifically what is observed, how one orients their thinking to the observations, and the decisions and actions that follow based on the first two actions.

Boyd’s E-M theory, when applied to business, has the same effect as in combat: Energy increases with maneuverability. So, how maneuverable is your organization? Are you stuck in the past or truly adaptive to what you and your people are seeing in real time?

Organizations must be agile and flexible in responding to the external world and not reliant on either past success or the systems or practices that attained one’s present position, relative to competitors and the external world.

 

Chet Richards, a Boyd “acolyte,” took Boyd’s principles and the OODA Loop and applied this model to the business world, which is available in Richards 2004 book (See reference at the end of this article.  Richards cited “four distinctive although not distinct” activities:

  • The leader must observe the environment-self; opponent; the physical, mental, and moral situation; and potential allies and opponents.
  • The leader must orient properly to decide what it all means. Boyd calls orientation a “many-sided, implicit cross-referencing’ process involving the information observed, one’s genetic heritage, social environment, and prior experiences, and the results of analyses one conducts and synthesis one forms.” (See Richards for more details).
  • Leaders must reach some type of decision based on observations and orientation.
  • Finally, the leader must act on the decision.

Thus, the OODA Loop was born: Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. The OODA Loop applies to any situation in which competition exists. Richards (2004, p. 65) noted:

You are simultaneously observing any mismatches between your conception of the world and the way the world really is, trying to reorient to a confusing and threatening situation, and attempting to come up with ideas to deal with it. It is the quickness of the entire cycle, and in particular, the time it takes to, in Boyd’s language, “transition from one orientation state to another,” and not just or even particularly the speed of the O-to-O-to-D-to-A axis, which determines agility and competitive power.

Too often, leaders fail to spot mismatches, such as cognitive dissonance that may arise when bad news runs counter to “conventional wisdom,” which contributes to orientations that are “detached from reality.” Richards notes that both implicit and explicit decisions can be flawed with actions that fail to achieve desired results. Avoiding this problem requires effective leadership and collaboration through which organizations continually thrive rather than fight internally.  Within your own sphere of influence, how do you then strengthen the orientation process to avoid such errors?

Boyd’s mental model, which follows, is appropriate for understanding the dynamic world in which we live, where deep thinking and rapid decision-making are essential for success. As strategic leaders in your domains of influence, embracing Boyd’s analysis and teaching can increase your organizational and individual effectiveness.

 

Employing the OODA Loop

The OODA Loop is being used by more organizations as its value has become known outside of military circles. Note that “Cultural Traditions” is at the top of Orientation cycle for good reason. The flexibility or rigidity of organizational culture can either open or restrict opportunities, respectively. Thus, leaders who seek to maintain bureaucratic structures focused on the status quo with only incremental changes in practices are significantly hampered and less likely to adopt and gain from the OODA Loop.

Leaders who sincerely want to their organizations to be “leading edge” or “highly competitive” need to study, adopt, and engage leaders throughout their enterprises in using the OODA Loop. At a minimum, everyone within the enterprise should have a clear LINE OF SIGHT between daily efforts and the organization’s transcendent purpose, which should include the “over the horizon” vision and a well-defined mission that sets them apart from others. Boyd’s design of Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act is a very powerful tool for collaboration and achieving alignment, which are essential elements in achieving performance excellence and making competitors irrelevant.

 

Introducing the Four Anchors Framework

Future articles in this series will address each element of the Four Anchors Framework in greater detail, but let’s begin with a brief introduction. Deloitte Consulting has provided annual updates to their State of the Workplace for nearly 10 years, but the three trends in Human Capital Management have remained relatively constant: Organizational Design, Organizational Leadership, and Organizational Culture. The question is, “How is your organization addressing the integration of these key elements and integrating them into a cohesive whole? 

The Four Anchors Framework addresses this challenge and what you can do to overcome it Further, the Four Anchors Framework provides the structure for organizational transformation, which is necessary when engendering more critical and creative thinking throughout an enterprise. These outcomes will become evident as we delve deeper into each element of the Framework.

 

Culture

·      The first anchor, Organizational Culture, is the social glue that binds people, an organization’s most critical asset, to the purpose of the organization.

·      Next to building trust throughout an enterprise, building the right culture is the most critical responsibility of executive leaders.

·      Culture begins with SHARED values, beliefs, and tactics that guide behaviors and practices through which an organization becomes known.

·      To protect all assets of an organization, leaders must also establish the ethical code through which everyone within an organization sets the right example and agrees to do the right things for the stakeholders they serve.

Contemplative Question: Which of these characteristics are evident in my Organizational Culture today?

  • All employees have a “can do attitude.”
  • Mutual support across departments is readily evident.
  • Mutual respect for others’ positions and perspectives is a dominant cultural artifact.
  • Decision-making considers the betterment of the community as a priority.
  • Everyone avoids judging ideas too quickly by listening, learning, and seeking mutual understanding.

 

Give yourself one point for each characteristic that is clearly evident within your enterprise. Scores less than four indicate you have some work to do!

 

Character

The second anchor, Organizational Character, directly affects an organization’s reputational capital and how people within and outside the organization perceive an organization’s values in actions, which is the definition of Character.

Consider the following selected quotes from “The New Business Drivers: Corporate Character and Social Capitalism” (Forbes, May 4, 2021) by Rick Murray:

“The difference between words and actions in any company comes down to character.”

“CEOs and their leadership teams are under intense pressure not just to grow but to grow while doing right by society and the planet.”

The Two Sides of Character

Character is a critical element of success for any business – public or private, for profit or not for profit- to move forward. Character has two sides as depicted in the figure below.  Performance Character is Intrapersonal and is about doing the best job we can do as individuals with representative traits and behaviors shown here. Moral Character is Interpersonal, about being the best person we can be toward others with these representative traits and behaviors.

Figure 2. The Two Sides of Character

Note that “Trustworthiness” and “caring” are the two critical traits for building strong relationships.  People don’t care how much you know until they know how much you care – this applies to every stakeholder with whom you interact.

Contemplative Question: What standard do you use to determine Character within our organizations?

 

Leadership

Many leaders do not understand the third anchor, Organizational Leadership, as well as they should.  Consider these points:

We need to eliminate the term “leadership training” from our vocabulary and replace it with “leadership development” because leadership involves a range of interpersonal competences that are built on others and are developed over time.

We need to differentiate between individual and organizational leadership because the demands of organizational leadership extend well beyond teams and interpersonal relations.

Organizational versus Individual Leadership

Leadership is complex because it operates on many levels. Numerous articles and websites focus on Individual Leadership, i.e., the traits and practices of a leader for being effective on a one-to-one basis with others. Organizational Leadership goes well beyond the individual because leaders with organizational responsibilities must elevate those around them to a higher level of consciousness that requires a transformation in practiced behaviors, values, and motivation. Many of the problems within organizations today are the result of Organizational leaders failing to (1) Operate at a level higher than simply being exalted managers of a defined domain and (2) Aligning their organizations for success.

The heart of Organizational Leadership rests with alignment on Organizational Purpose, which needs to include consciousness of community and societal needs, which is rarely achieved at the individual level (Barrett, 1998). To achieve Purpose, i.e., the vision, mission, and goals of an organization, leaders at all levels must align and build the Human Capital through which all work is accomplished and through which goals are achieved. Alignment begins with hiring the right people with the right values to continue to build and reinforce the right culture.

 

Organizational Design

The fourth anchor is Organizational Design.  My favorite Peter Drucker quote is: “Every organization is perfectly designed for the results it gets.”  To achieve great results, we need to start with a great design, and leaders of great organizations purposely design every aspect of their enterprise to achieve performance excellence

 

A lot has appeared in LinkedIn and other social media about “Culture” and what it means.  According to a Deloitte Consulting study several years ago, less than one-third of executives truly understand what culture means and what is consists of, and only 12% of executives thought their culture was headed in the right direction. The next article in this series will address Culture in depth with some steps for how to begin transforming one’s culture

 

To obtain a deeper understanding of how to apply the OODA Loop, Certain to Win by Chet Richards should be mandatory reading for all members of a company’s executive team.

What You Should be Doing Now (30-minute follow-up)

  1. Perform your own informal organizational assessment by asking the following questions:
    1. Does my organization have a well-defined set of Core Values that guide behaviors and actions consistently throughout the enterprise?
    2. Does my organization have a clear definition of the Character traits that are important for success within the enterprise, such as integrity, caring, responsibility, etc, and do specific examples or definitions exist for clear understanding at all levels of the organization?
    3. Does my organization have a leadership development program that is available to all organizational levels to improve leadership at the strategic, operational, and frontline (grassroots) levels?
    4. Does my organization have a defined Organizational Design that aligns all levels (strategic, operational, and grassroots) on Purpose, Shared Core Values, and a Commitment to Performance Excellence through which everyone has a clear line of sight from the work they do each day to the vision, mission, and goals of the enterprise?

 

  1. Engage your Direct Reports in a collaborative discussion on what organizational success looks like from their perspective. Engage one of them as a Scribe to take notes that can be shared after the fact.

Questions for deeper understanding and action:

Consider the following questions and how they apply to your organization.  Also consider how you might engage Direct Reports in “brown bag” sessions over lunch on each topic. These are “lead-in” questions for the next topic in this series.

  1. Why is understanding Culture an essential attribute of organizational leaders?
  2. How does Culture relate to effective decision-making, especially with regard to the OODA Loop?
  3. How does Culture look from an Organizational Leadership perspective, specifically from strategic leaders within the C-Suite and cascading to operational leaders responsible for executing strategic direction and achieving goals defined within organizational plans?
  4. How have your built “The Right Culture” for your organization? Do you constantly “push the envelope of current beliefs” to challenge and strengthen the ability to “do the right things” or is your culture complacent and taken for granted?

Suggested Research

You can obtain more information about the OODA Loop online via an article by Mark S. Phillips, PhD. He describes the OODA Loop as well as more of Boyd’s core thinking on the topic  (https://www.dau.edu/library/defense-atl/blog/revisiting-john-boyd)

Suggested Reading

Barrett, R. (1998). Liberating the corporate soul: Building a visionary organization. Boston, MA: Butterworth-Heinemann.

Richards, C. (2004). Certain to Win: The strategy of John Boyd, applied to business. Bloomington, IN: Xlibris Publishing.

 

Coram, R. (2002). Boyd: The fighter pilot who changed the art of war. Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Company.

 

About the Author: Dr. Ray Benedetto is co-founder of GuideStar, Inc.® a practice in organizational leadership and design for performance excellence (www.guidestarinc.com). He is a retired Air Force colonel with a distinguished active-duty military career as a transformation leader and change agent. He is board certified in Healthcare Management and a Life Fellow of the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE). He taught leadership and strategic planning for 12 years in the MBA Program for the University of Phoenix Chicago Campus and holds degrees from Penn State (BS), the University of Southern California (MSSM), and the University of Phoenix (DM). He is co-author of “It’s My Company TOO! How Entangled Companies Move Beyond Engagement for Remarkable Results” (Greenleaf Book Press Group, 2012) and numerous ezine articles available online. You can reach him at ray@guidestarinc.com.

 

 

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